Four years ago, almost to the day, I wrote an editorial piece about Xbox Game Studios for Lords of Gaming titled “Microsoft is Failing as a 1st Party”. It represented a significant amount of analysis looking at Microsoft’s struggles to create and sustain new franchises. Given this week’s candid interview by Phil Spencer, I felt like it was a good time to revisit the central thesis of that article and check in on the current status of Microsoft’s first-party studios and their ability to create and sustain franchises.
I will use the same analytical methodology as I used in the previous article which uses the following assumptions and definitions:
- Re-releases are only used when the re-release was a substantial upgrade, i.e. Halo: The Master Chief Collection has been included, but the port of Banjo Kazooie was not.
- Franchise indicates any game series with more than one sequel.
- Active franchises must have at least three titles in the series and a release in the last 3 years or a current announced title in development. So Fable is allowed to be included since there is an announced title, despite not having released a title in the franchise since 2017.
- Titles published by Bethesda Softworks that were released post Microsoft’s acquisition of Zenimax in 2021 are included. These titles include Deathloop, Ghostwire: Tokyo, Hi-Fi Rush, and Redfall.
Microsoft First Party Franchise Players
Microsoft currently has seven active franchises. They are:
- Forza Horizon
- Forza Motorsport
- Gears of War
- Halo
- State of Decay
- Minecraft
- Age of Empires
Two of the franchises from the original article, Crackdown and Killer Instinct no longer have a place on this list. Minecraft qualifies thanks to its spin-off entries Minecraft Dungeons which launched in 2020 and Minecraft Legends which was released this year. State of Decay has received a single entry per generation going back to the Xbox 360 and a new entry State of Decay 3 has been announced. Of these active franchises, four of the six all sit above an 80 on Metacritic as the average for all entries. Forza Horizon holds the highest mark with an average of 89. Meanwhile, State of Decay sits at a 74. Of these franchises, none of them began life on either the Xbox Series X, which is not surprising, or on the Xbox One, which is. The Xbox One generation was utterly crippling in developing new franchises.
Loosen the Requirements
If we take out the three-game requirement and go to just two games but with the promise of a third, in the last 5 years, there is only a single series that qualifies, Ori and the Will of the Wisps whose last entry launched in 2020. Out of all of the games that launched in the Xbox One generation, not a single one has launched a sequel that has not been included in the above list. Senua’s Sacrifice has an announced sequel, Senua’s Saga: Hellblade II. Though it has been six years since the original release well prior to Ninja Theory’s purchase by Microsoft. Additionally, there is an announced sequel to The Outer Worlds from Obsidian that should see release within the next calendar year.
Sustainment, Not Expansion
Xbox Game Studios currently boasts fourteen internal studios with an additional nine that were added with the purchase of ZeniMax media. Of these studios, three of them are what I would label as shepherd studios. 343 Industries was tasked with heralding the next generation of Halo in a post-Bungie world. They have succeeded far beyond their other sister studios, releasing three games to critical acclaim, though mixed lasting success. Similarly, The Coalition has developed and launched multiple Gears of War games since original studio Epic handed off the reins. This is the closest to new franchises as Microsoft has been able to produce in the last decade. Similarly, World’s Edge has been the caretakers of the Age of Empires franchise whose origins are decades old but the studio is only 4 years old.
The flip side of the coin is Turn 10 Studios and Playground Games who have been steadfast in holding the highest quality bars for the Forza Motorsport and Forza Horizon series. They are consistent, high quality, well executed, and perhaps most importantly, shipped games. These are the only blue-blood franchises that Microsoft consistently has in its belt at this point.
Everyone Else At the Party
Compulsion Games, Double Fine Productions, The Initiative, inXile Entertainment, and Rare have produced one-off titles, or no titles at all in the case of The Initiative. This says nothing about the quality of the titles produced by these studios, or their longevity. Sea of Thieves and Grounded are perennially top-played titles. It is only to say that these are not franchises or franchise foundational titles. The Initiative is a baffling studio in that it has been around for 5 years and produced no titles. In 2020, the studio was announced to be working on a Perfect Dark reboot. A reboot that has yet to materialize in any real form beyond a trailer. Additionally, a slick trailer for a project code-named Shangheist was shown by the Coalition when it was still Black Tusk Studios but was ultimately canned in favor of a then taking over Gears of War.
Due to the relative recency of the Bethesda purchase, it is really unfair to lump them into this discussion. After all, there have been only four titles released. Of these, all but Redfall debuted to critical and fan acclaim. This is a promising indicator that more may be coming, but as history has shown us, this is far from a guarantee. The Activision Blizzard purchase has also not been finalized and is under dispute around the world, so they are being left out of this conversation.
Quality and Quantity Are Lacking
It isn’t just that Xbox Game Studios isn’t producing new franchises. It is also that they aren’t producing many games at all. Since the launch of the Xbox Series X, Microsoft has published only 13 games. In its first three years on the market, Microsoft published 31 titles on the Xbox One. Including publishing on the Xbox 360 in that timeframe, the number jumps to 54. Even if Starfield, Senua’s Saga, Outer Worlds II, and Everwild somehow all launch this year, that number is still substantially lower. Now, the COVID-19 pandemic clearly took a toll on these studios. Even accounting for that, the output volume is severely lacking. Microsoft published just 4 games on the Series X in 2021. Psychonauts 2, Forza Horizon 5, Microsoft Flight Simulator, and Halo Infinite. That is simply not enough to sustain a healthy ecosystem on a platform.
The Future is Now
343 Industries has lost several top leaders and Halo Infinite’s expected long tail is proving to be short indeed. The Coalition is searching for the answer to what the next evolution of Gears of War will be. Playground Games, a perennial reliable studio, is currently deep in the making of Fable with no end in sight. Even that is no sure thing since Fable hasn’t seen a main series release since 2010’s Fable III. The last entry in the series was 2017’s Fable Fortune, a collectible card game. Titles like Bleeding Edge, Sunset Overdrive, and Gears Tactics could potentially receive sequels. The same goes for indy titles like Tell Me Why or Battletoads, or even Psychonauts. But whether that will happen is up for debate. New IPs are fantastic, but new IPs that don’t become franchises are indicative of a problem.
Games as a Service
Now, the development of franchises could be equated to an antiquated metric. In the modern era, many games opt for a live service approach. Here too, Microsoft has had mixed success. Many live service games have large updates that bring new players in. Just recently, we saw the launch of Duviri Paradox for Warframe and Lightfall for Destiny 2. These big expansions pull in new customers and are a big marketing push. In this arena, Microsoft has launched three significant forays:
- Sea of Thieves
- State of Decay 2
- Halo Infinite
Sea of Thieves launched in 2018 on the Xbox One and was ported to the Xbox Series X in 2020. It has been a resounding success with over 30 million unique players. It received four major expansions, The Hungering Deep, Cursed Sails, and Smuggler’s Fortune. These all launched in the first two years of its release before moving to a battle pass model in 2020. The final expansion, A Pirate’s Life launched in June of 2021. The game currently boasts player counts in the tens of thousands on Steam alone. An impressive feat for a five-year-old title. Unequivocably, Sea of Thieves is a massive success in the Games as a service space.
State of Decay 2 has released approximately four significant content updates: Daybreak, Heartland, Plague Territory, and Homecoming. The most recent of these launching in 2021, no doubt as the team at Undead Labs fully pivoted to work on State of Decay 3.
Halo Infinite is by far the biggest investment Microsoft has made into this space. The game launched to favorable reviews back in 2021. According to Steam Charts, Halo Infinite currently sits at an average of 3000 players/day. A number it has been at for the last year. Active Player charts the total number of active players at around 40,000 a number it has been at since January. There have been no major content releases not including patches since launch.
The Rest of The Service
Therefore, Microsoft is desperately trying to buy its way out of its current malaise. First purchasing Obsidian, which has already paid off in the form of Pentiment, Outer Wilds 2, and the upcoming Avowed. The purchase of Zenimax will be out to the test in the form of Bethesda proper with the release of Starfield. There is also the purchase of Activision Blizzard. But this spending spree is really to show that in the decade since Satya Nadella announced that Phil Spencer was to lead Xbox, Xbox Game Studios have not created new games worthy of sequels. Since 2014, Ori and the Blind Forest is the only new IP published by Xbox Game Studios that has gotten a sequel.
Games as a service such as League of Legends while not receiving traditional sequels or expansions, have still grown their brand into expanded media and spin-offs. Here Halo and Gears of War have shined, but few others have made a dent. Sea of Thieves shines here as well with a tabletop game and comics released set in the world.
The Backlash
Phil Spencer has been all over the gaming landscape this week. That includes an editorial here at Lords of Gaming based on his comments to Kinda Funny. The data backs it all up. Xbox’s glory days were two generations ago. They may yet come again, but it will be on the backs of dollar bills thrown at other companies. It will not be on the success and development of homegrown talent. When management is successful, internal studios should be publishing games and building new teams within the bounds of the development house. This organic process shows development in employees from the hands-on development to project leads to team leads. This natural process of leadership development should be enabling creators as they progress through their career to take their shot at new IP or at being the head of a franchise or a spin-off. The fact that the closest we have seen to that is PlayGround Games expanding to have a Fable team is a failure in management. A failure that has set the internet ablaze earlier this week.
Microsoft has a deep catalog of games available for resurrection. It has been around for two decades after all. Crimson Skies, MechAssault, Viva Piñata. Even Too Human could make a comeback in the right hands. Where to find those right hands, I do not know. Rare and Obsidian have been absolute goldmines for Microsoft since they became part of the family. Turn 10 and Playground are familiar standbys. Whether that’s enough in 2023, the current status of the Xbox Series X platform seems to say no.
Correction: An earlier version of this article stated that Obsidian was part of the Zenimax purchase. Thanks to Twitter user @dublindaverein for the correction
